Study disputes thesis about Treasury IPCA+ and debentures exempt from IR

The debate about the end of the Income Tax exemption for incentivized bonds returned to the center of the market's attention, and a study began to contest the thesis that the Treasury IPCA+ would be losing space for exempt debentures. According to Seu Dinheiro, the survey points to someone else responsible for the movement, but the section investigated does not identify what this factor would be.

The topic gained strength because the income tax exemption for individuals on incentivized securities is precisely the point under discussion. For those who invest, the issue directly concerns the comparison between fixed income securities with different tax treatment, which explains the attention of operators and analysts.

According to Seu Dinheiro, the government has not yet publicly defined whether it intends to end the exemption. This week, vehicles reported the possibility of charging via IOF, a tax on financial transactions. Market participants are already analyzing the topic, but the official intention remains undefined.

It has not yet been decided which titles would be charged. Those mentioned are encouraged debentures, LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA, FII and infrastructure funds, which shows that the discussion can reach a wide range of applications, and not just one type of paper.

At the center of the controversy is the comparison between the IPCA+ Treasury, a public bond indexed to inflation with real interest, and exempt debentures. The thesis that investors migrate from public bonds to these securities is contested by the study, which, according to Seu Dinheiro, identifies another culprit for the observed dynamics.

In this newspaper's editorial view, episodes like this reinforce an old argument: tax changes in the middle of the game reduce predictability for those who save and invest in the long term. Fiscal responsibility, in this reading, involves cutting expenses before increasing taxation on savings.

What changes for the investor

For now, the scenario is unclear: the government's intention has not been made public, there is no closed list of affected titles and the study disputes the explanation for the preference for one role or another. If any charge is confirmed, the possible effect is a reassessment of the comparison between the Treasury IPCA+ and the incentivized bonds, with an impact on the weight of each alternative in the portfolio. It is worth following the official definition and details of any measure before drawing conclusions about price behavior.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.