Trump has no interest in escalating the dispute between Flávio and Lula, says director of Eurasia

According to Estadão, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has no interest in expanding the clash between the defeated candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and President Lula, according to Christopher Garman, executive director for the Eurasian Americas. The assessment comes amid the discussion about American tariffs on Brazilian products.

Eurasia, which the newspaper describes as the largest political risk consultancy in the world, is the space where Garman operates. In his opinion, Washington should not announce new retaliations against Brazil.

The background includes Flávio Bolsonaro's trip to the United States, where he declared himself president of Brazil, according to Estadão. Garman assesses that the bilateral relationship can be stressed, but that the balance tends to be maintained.

In the commercial field, the director states that it will be difficult to remove American tariffs without Brazil offering something in return. The Brazilian government, in turn, does not signal a willingness to meet the Trump administration's demands to review the tariffs. Garman believes that Brazilians are also not willing to accept these conditions.

The impasse, therefore, combines two readings: the expectation that the escalation will not progress and the difficulty of unlocking tariffs without concessions that the government does not seem willing to make. The theme remains at the center of the relationship between the two countries.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in the stock market, dollar and interest, Garman's analysis points to a contained tension, with no new American measures in his assessment, but also no solution to tariffs. Trade barriers that remain weigh on exporters and sectors dependent on the American market, which keeps the risk of trade policy on the radar. In practice, investors tend to follow negotiation signals and possible changes in the stance of Brasília and Washington. This reading, in itself, does not indicate direction for asset prices.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.