Oil closes higher and advances around 15% in the month with tensions in the Middle East

Oil closed higher on Friday, the 30th, and ended the month with a strong appreciation, according to InfoMoney. Brent, traded on ICE in London, rose 2.37% in the January contract, to US$ 113.43 per barrel. WTI, the Nymex benchmark, advanced 2.08% in the December contract, to US$104.12.

During the week, the gain was 1.55% for Brent and 0.82% for WTI. In the month to date, however, the increase reached 15.70% in Brent and 15.15% in WTI, which gives the dimension of the recent movement of the commodity.

According to InfoMoney, the rise is linked to uncertainty about the success of mediators in negotiations between the United States and Iran. In other words, the market began to consider the possibility that the dialogue would not produce an agreement, and each signal coming from the negotiating table tends to move prices.

There is also tension between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, which, according to the same source, threatens the kingdom's energy infrastructure. When the risk falls on production and flow facilities, the concern stops being just diplomatic and starts directly affecting supply.

What is at stake is the continuity of this risk premium. If negotiations progress, pressure tends to decrease; If new episodes of tension arise, the commodity may react strongly again, as shown by the month's accumulated rise.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the message is to pay attention to volatility. More expensive oil tends to put pressure on transportation and production costs and fuel inflation expectations, which influences the path of interest rates and currency prices. Following news about diplomacy in the Middle East becomes part of reading risk, without this meaning predicting prices.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.