Lula's campaign measures have a fiscal impact of R$40 billion without a forecast in the Budget

The estimated fiscal impact of Lula's re-election campaign measures reaches R$40 billion, according to the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a consultative body linked to the Senate. The estimate appears in the October Fiscal Monitoring Report (RAF), released on Thursday (29/10), and was reported by Money Times.

According to the report, the calculation considers three fronts: changes to Bolsa Família, loss of revenue from bets and a package aimed at individual microentrepreneurs (MEI).

The point that draws the most attention is the lack of budget coverage. The R$40 billion is not foreseen in either the 2026 or 2027 Budget, which means that the cost does not appear in the budget documents for both years.

Two proposals were left out of the calculation: the expansion of the nest egg for university students and free public transport on weekends. Therefore, the total published does not reflect these measures.

For those who defend fiscal responsibility, an impact of this magnitude without a defined source in the Budget is precisely the type of data that weighs on the discussion about the trajectory of public accounts.

What changes for the investor

The market usually monitors fiscal deterioration through future interest and exchange rates, because expenses without an indicated source raise doubts about the debt and the direction of the accounts. The IFI has a consultative nature and does not decide what will be approved, so the effect will depend on which measures advance in Congress. For those who operate the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates or the dollar, it is worth monitoring the agency's next projections and possible changes in budgets. This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.