Between Dilma 2 and Lula 1, the new government has to choose the country’s direction

The atmosphere at Faria Lima was that of a wake on Monday, but columnist Rodolfo Amstalden, from Seu Dinheiro, reads the moment with less pessimism. According to him, the country continues to be where people work and invest, and there are people willing to hope that things work minimally or, at least, don't go so wrong. For the author, the risks are serious, but the opportunities are also real, and the year is not over yet.

Much of 2026 was lived under the expectation of a binary outcome, the so-called electoral trade. According to the column, this bet yielded significant gains for those who set up option structures. With the election now over, the logic of polarization has not disappeared, it has only changed direction.

The column maintains that the bifurcation continues, but now with another axis. The Lula 4 government, which begins now, would have the choice of behaving like what the author calls « tragic » Dilma 2 or of resuming the achievements associated with Lula 1. For Amstalden, these are totally different paths.

For those who invest, this choice goes beyond party politics, because it directly touches expectations about the direction of the economy. The stock market, interest rates and the dollar usually react to signals about the discipline of public accounts, and it is in this field that the new government's decision will be observed.

From an editorial point of view, the debate gains relevance when it places fiscal responsibility and the predictability of rules at the center, conditions that influence both productive investment and financial investor confidence.

Amstalden's reading ends with a tone of cautious optimism: a “tropical and shaky” Brazil, but still the place where people live, work and invest in the future.

What changes for the investor

With the election out of the spotlight, investors tend to shift their focus to concrete signs of the new government, such as the conduct of public accounts and the coherence between discourse and practice. Options structures that benefited from binary expectation may lose ground when that expectation dissipates, which requires reviewing exposure and investment horizon. This text does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price projections. Following the government's definitions in the areas of fiscal and economic rules helps to separate scenarios, but the outcome depends on choices that have not yet been made.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.