New tax rate proposal is 23% higher than expected and raises alert for prices in 2027

A proposed rate for CBS reached the debate above what the market expected. According to Estadão, the TCU proposed 11.35% on Wednesday, the 28th, a percentage 23% above expectations, which was close to 9.2%.

CBS is the new tax created by the tax reform to replace PIS and Cofins. This means that the rate set for it will determine how much taxation costs on the base that is currently covered by these two taxes, which makes it a weighty number for companies and consumers.

The timing of the proposal also draws attention. According to Estadão, it emerged after the end of the presidential elections, which places the discussion about the rate in a period of definitions for the next cycle.

The report's main warning is the risk of rising prices in 2027, linked directly to the tax rate. For those who defend fiscal responsibility and lower taxes, the distance between the proposal and market expectations is the central point: the higher the tax rate, the greater the pressure on the costs that reach the consumer.

The facts discovered so far deal with a proposal, not a final decision. Monitoring the next steps will be important to measure whether the distance in relation to the market will be reduced or maintained.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the theme works as a signal about inflation. If the risk of rising prices in 2027 is confirmed, the discussion about interest rates tends to gain weight, which tends to affect indebted companies and exchange rate readings more. This is a possible effect, not a prediction: the scenario depends on how the rate will be defined and how much of this burden will be passed on to prices.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.