Searches to live in Paraguay rise 1,700% after Lula’s victory

Searches for information on how to live in Paraguay rose 1,700% in the first 48 hours after Lula's victory, confirmed on Sunday 25th. Revista Oeste attributes the survey to Google Trends, with the data published by Gazeta do Povo.

The indicator, however, measures search interest and not the number of people who left the country. A spike in research may reflect curiosity, anxiety or simple repercussion of the result, and the facts collected do not provide data on completed changes.

On the supply side, the movement is already appearing in business. According to Revista Oeste, international consultants report difficulty in meeting demand. One of the examples cited is the consultancy of Raphaël Lima, a businessman who has lived in Asunción for around five years and who reinforced the team due to the increase in demand.

His company operates internationally in more than 80 countries and has 50 employees. The data collected does not inform how many people were served or how much the team grew.

What is at stake is whether the interest is converted into an effective outflow of people and capital. This is the point that separates a mood thermometer from an economic phenomenon, and there is still no measurement of this second step in the available facts.

What changes for the investor

The reading for those who invest is one of expectations, not proven flow. Exit-seeking movements tend to signal concern about the fiscal direction and rules for assets, and this type of perception tends to appear in prices through interest, exchange rate and risk premium. The available data does not allow estimating the magnitude or direction of any asset. Those who follow the market have more to gain by observing fiscal indicators, the interest rate curve and exchange rate behavior in the coming weeks than by drawing conclusions from a series of searches.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.