Vale should show profits with a drop of more than 48% in 3Q26 on balance sheet day and full fiscal agenda

The mining company Vale (VALE3) reaches the balance sheet for the third quarter of 2026 with expectations of a strong drop in the main indicators. According to the Bloomberg consensus reported by Money Times, net profit attributable to shareholders should total R$7.598 billion, a decline of more than 48% on an annual basis. Ebitda, according to the same survey, has a consensus of R$ 18.03 billion, a drop of 24.13%.

According to Seu Dinheiro, analysts are already projecting lower profits for the company in 3Q26. The Money Times adds that oil has put pressure on Vale's costs since the second quarter and started to influence the result. In other words, fuel is no longer just a backdrop and now appears as a cost factor.

Another change is in the publicity calendar. According to Money Times, the 3Q26 production report will be released together with the balance sheet, and not days before, as is usually the case. Anyone who monitors volumes and results will have to process both pieces of information at the same time, without previously reading the production.

Thursday, the 29th, also has a heavy agenda outside of Vale. Ambev releases its balance sheet before the market opens, and Vale, after the market closes. On the fiscal side, the Central Government's primary result comes out in the morning, and fiscal statistics and the Treasury's monthly debt report come out in the afternoon, reports Money Times.

On the political scene, InfoMoney reports that Flávio Bolsonaro, defeated by Lula at the polls on the Sunday before the note, traveled to the United States on Wednesday, the day on which PL leaders, Sóstenes Cavalcante and Carlos Portinho, signed a note of support for Flávio and his family.

Abroad, the pre-market had opposite reactions. According to Money Times, Microsoft rose 2.57%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 10% after the earnings report. The contrast reminds us that the reaction to a result usually begins before the opening of trading.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in Vale, the central point is the distance between the consensus and what the company actually delivers, added to the weight of oil in costs and a calendar that concentrates production and financial numbers on a single date. If the result is close to projections, the reading tends to revolve around the company's prospects. If there is a relevant deviation, the reaction will depend on how much the number deviates from what was expected. For those who follow interest rates and the dollar, Thursday's fiscal data works as a thermometer for public accounts: a picture of fiscal discipline tends to be read favorably by the market, while deviations tend to weigh on interest rates and exchange rates.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.