Fed postpones interest rate hike, but GDP and inflation could complicate the wait

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has delayed raising interest rates, but upcoming economic data may make this pause more difficult to sustain. According to MarketWatch, the current GDP and inflation reports arrive precisely at the moment when the wait is being tested.

The vehicle assesses that strong growth and persistent price pressures could reinforce the case for an interest rate hike in December. In other words, the postponement does not end the debate, and the market will continue to pay attention to the next indicators.

GDP and inflation will be released together at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This coincidence concentrates in a single morning the information that should guide expectations about monetary policy, which tends to make the beginning of the trading session more sensitive to interpretations.

In this newspaper's editorial line, the fundamental issue is the discipline with which the central bank deals with inflation. For those who defend fiscal responsibility and a stable currency, the persistence of prices is the most important factor, because it turns a pause into a difficult choice.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the scenario calls for extra attention in the coming weeks. An expected rate hike in December could weigh on assets sensitive to the cost of money, such as shares of growth companies, and support the dollar. These are possible effects, which depend on the numbers released and the market reaction, and not a price forecast. It is worth monitoring the 8:30 am data and the tone of the Fed's statements before making any decision.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.