Vale's balance sheet for the 3rd quarter arrives this Thursday with pressure from commodities and costs

Vale releases this Thursday (29) the balance sheet for the third quarter of 2026, and the market arrives at the number with the expectation of pressure. According to InfoMoney, analysts estimate that the result should be affected by the drop in commodity prices and the rise in operating costs at the same time.

For the investor who follows the mining company on the stock exchange, the quarter gains weight because it combines two forces that usually act in opposite directions on the margin. When commodity prices fall, revenue tends to shrink. When costs rise, the bill for those who produce becomes more expensive. With both pressures together, the space to absorb the impact becomes smaller.

The most cited projection in the news is that of Itaú BBA, which estimates pro forma EBITDA of US$3.5 billion in the third quarter. According to InfoMoney, the bank's estimate indicates a 14% drop in the indicator in the annual comparison.

It is worth remembering that the number is pro forma, and this changes the reading. According to InfoMoney, the indicator excludes the effects of the Brumadinho and Mariana agreements. Anyone who only looks at proforma EBITDA may have a different image than what emerges when considering these effects, which is why the cut-off used in the comparison between quarters matters.

What changes for the investor

For the investor, reading the balance sheet requires three precautions: comparing the pro forma Ebitda with Itaú BBA's projection, carefully monitoring the evolution of operating costs and not treating the adjusted indicator as a final result. The scenario described by analysts points to pressure on profitability, and sensitivity to commodity prices and costs remains at the center of the stock's assessment. The balance can reinforce this reading or undo it. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price projection.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.