White House minimizes war in Iran as a short-term effect and bets on energy just days before the election

Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the war in Iran has a "short-term consequence" on fuel prices and that President Donald Trump's energy policy will cause gasoline and diesel prices to fall again. The statement was given to presenter Martha MacCallum, on the Fox News program The Story, four days before the mid-term elections in the United States.

According to Leavitt, Trump has been direct with voters in Iowa and across the country about the effects of the conflict. She stated that, as a whole, the president's energy policy will reduce the costs of gasoline and diesel. In contrast, she said Democrats want to end and phase out the use of fossil fuels in the country, which, in her assessment, would raise energy costs and harm both the countryside and the rest of the United States.

Rural voters and economy

The program opened with declining Republican support among rural voters. According to the channel, a survey shows that 57% of rural voters consider the economy to be bad. Two Iowa farmers interviewed by the broadcaster cited health and tariffs among the issues that weigh on their voting decision. One of them, a former Republican, said he will vote for Turek, and the other, for Hinson.

Leavitt responded that Trump understands where these voters stand. He cited tariff policy as protection for American agriculture and reported that, in a meeting with the president of China, Xi Jinping, on his historic visit to South Korea, Trump raised the importance of China purchasing American soybeans. According to her, the purchases were made after the meeting, under pressure from the president.

Schedule of rallies and the dispute in the polls

MacCallum questioned the change in the president's schedule, which had been considered canceled in Kansas and Idaho and was maintained again. Leavitt said there was only reorganization to maximize Trump's time: a stop in Florida on Friday night, two on Sunday (Iowa and Kansas) and dozens of rallies in between. According to her, the president promised to hold rallies almost every day of October and held 28 in person during the month, with three more before Tuesday's vote.

Leavitt acknowledged that history does not favor the president's party in the midterm elections, but said he doesn't know of another president who has dedicated so much time to helping his own party. For her, if the base goes to the polls, it will be a very good night for the Republicans.

What does this mean for the market

MacCallum highlighted GDP growth of 3.4% and said that economists point to underlying strength in the economy, despite the rise in oil, which the presenter considers temporary. According to her, oil production coming from the Gulf is now equivalent to that prior to February 28, having been quickly redirected along other routes. In the presenter’s opinion, this tends to have a positive effect.

The transcript does not contain projections of prices, interest or public accounts. For investors, the message from the White House is that the energy shock would be temporary. The aforementioned research indicates that the negative perception of the economy among rural voters remains a political risk on the eve of the vote.

At another point, MacCallum cited Washington Post research in Kansas: after 85,000 calls and 50,000 text messages, Democrats were more willing to respond than Republicans, which could lead to overestimating Democratic support. Leavitt said Republicans distrust polls and that, historically, they underestimate Trump, who she said would not be in the White House if the polls were right.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.