Electoral spending of up to R$354 billion increases consumption and leaves inflation, interest and dollar bills for 2027

The Lula government's package of measures to contest the second round may have injected up to R$354 billion into the economy in 2026, and the inflationary bill should arrive in January, according to an analysis by the Investidor Sardinha channel. The presenter states that the increase in consumption at the end of the year will have the counterpart of pressure on prices, high interest rates and a more expensive dollar.

The value of R$354 billion corresponds to Estadão's calculation, which called the survey a gas meter and counted 46 measures including direct spending, credit and taxes that were no longer charged. Other estimates cited in the video are lower: R$298 billion, from the IFI (Senate body), and R$290 billion, from Folha de S.Paulo.

Where did the money go

Among the measures listed are fuel subsidies (R$40 billion), exemption from Income Tax for those earning up to R$5,000 (R$31 billion), Desenrola 3.0 (R$15 billion), Bolsa Família with a 15% increase in 2026, Gás do Povo (R$5.1 billion) and MEI Pix of R$5,000 (R$5 billion). The Bolsa Família floor went from R$600 to R$691 in October, and the average benefit per family, from R$675 to R$777. There was also an advance payment of benefits between October 19 and 22, four days before the second round, with a cost of R$22 billion from 2027. The presenter recalls that Jair Bolsonaro's government tried a similar strategy in the 2022 re-election.

According to the channel, the change in Income Tax puts around R$31.2 billion per year in the pockets of more than 10 million people, who now have R$400 to R$500 more per month. According to the CNC calculation mentioned in the video, 54.5% of the total should become consumption, with emphasis on supermarkets (R$ 4.2 billion), gas stations (R$ 1.7 billion) and pharmacies (R$ 1.1 billion). Another 33.6% must go to paying off debts and 12% to savings and investments.

The calendar also includes the 13th salary for around 90 million people, Black Friday with an expectation of R$13 billion in e-commerce (20% increase over 2025) and, on January 1st, the new minimum wage of R$1,741, an increase of 7.4% that puts pressure on INSS, BPC, bonuses and unemployment insurance.

The account: inflation, dollar and interest

In the presenter's opinion, there is too much money for too little product, as the supply would not be able to keep up with the speed of the stimulus. The Central Bank's inflation target is 3%, with a ceiling of 4.5%, but the IPCA projection for 2026 appears at 5.19% and that for 2027 starts at 4.34%. He also cites the lag of Petrobras' diesel in relation to the import price and the 30-day deadline for the gasoline subsidy, which would expire shortly after the election.

The dollar, which closed the Friday before the second round at R$4.99, rose to R$5.60 after the result, an increase of 12% in one day. According to the channel, imported products such as wheat, medicines, electronics and fertilizers should arrive more expensive in 60 to 90 days. The video also mentions that the Treasury canceled auctions and that a circuit breaker was activated for the first time since 2020.

Regarding interest rates, the presenter says that the Selic rate of 13.75% should not fall quickly: the forecast cited is 13.25% at the end of 2026 and 11.75% at the end of 2027, a scenario that may not even be confirmed with inflation above the ceiling and a high dollar. He defends that the country discusses a serious economic agenda, with government and opposition, and states that the bill will not be left to the billionaires.

What changes for the market and investors

When reading the channel, the most immediate effect will be felt in the trade of daily consumer goods, such as food, pharmaceuticals and fuel, with sales driven by volume promotions and cash payments. The presenter projects November with money coming in, December as the peak of consumption and January as the month in which adjustments to school fees, health insurance and transport arrive.

In the field of assets, the presenter assesses that the IPCA+ Treasury, prefixed rates, IPCA+ ETF and products linked to Selic and CDI benefited from the scenario, as well as companies that pass on prices, such as supermarkets, pharmacies, energy and sanitation. According to him, savings, which yield 6.17% plus TR with inflation of 5.19%, leave little real gain, and those who bet on long fixed rates, rising stock markets, indebted retail and construction companies suffered losses. Those who had dollars in their wallets, he says, became 12% richer.

For consumers, the channel's message is to prioritize the payment of debts with interest above 14% per year and avoid transforming the 13th into installments for 2027. This is the presenter's analysis, not the newspaper's recommendation.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.