DI rates rise again on Friday morning, still under the effect of Lula's re-election
Contracts due in 2028 and 2035 rise 7 basis points, while Treasuries decline abroad
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM INFOMONEY · 3 MIN
DI contract rates rose again this Friday morning, October 30th. According to InfoMoney, with information from Reuters in São Paulo, the movement is still taking place under the impact of Lula's re-election. For those who follow fixed income, the stock market or the dollar, the future interest curve is one of the most watched indicators in the Brazilian market.
At 10:45 am, the DI due in January 2028 was 14.435%, an increase of 7 basis points compared to the previous adjustment of 14.366%. The DI for January 2035 was 15.3%, also an increase of 7 basis points, compared to the previous adjustment of 15.234%. The two maturities moved by the same magnitude, which suggests a broad movement in the curve and not an isolated adjustment in a single term.
Abroad, the scenario was different. Yields on Treasuries, US Treasury bonds, fell that morning, according to InfoMoney. While the American rate fell, the Brazilian rate rose, which indicates that the domestic movement followed its own dynamics and not just what was happening abroad.
The day's agenda also brought data from the labor market: the unemployment rate fell in the third quarter of this year, according to InfoMoney. The information alone does not explain the rise in interest rates, but it is included in the set of data that investors evaluate when pricing the trajectory of the economy.
The report cites Lula's re-election as the context for the rise. In this newspaper's view, it is precisely on this point that the discussion should focus: long interest rates tend to react to the perception of fiscal responsibility, and any sign of expansion in spending tends to appear in longer-term rates. The data collected for this article, however, does not contain government statements or measures that confirm the exact cause of the movement.
What changes for the investor
Anyone who invests in interest rates, the stock market, the Nasdaq or the dollar should look at the long curve as a thermometer of fiscal confidence, and not just the short-term rate. An increase of 7 basis points in a single day does not define a trend, but the persistence of increases like this over long maturities can make credit more expensive and weigh on riskier assets. This article does not recommend the purchase or sale of any security or asset and does not project prices; What can be said is that the direction of long interest rates and the reading on fiscal policy deserve monitoring in the coming sessions.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
