Petrobras must use strong operations to protect dividends from a possible fall in oil prices
Bank projections for 3Q26 earnings range from US$3.1 billion to US$4.2 billion, with balance scheduled for November 11th.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM SEU DINHEIRO · 2 MIN
Petrobras (PETR4) released operational data for the third quarter of 2026 on the night of the 28th, with production records. According to Seu Dinheiro, the result reinforced the expectation of a strong balance sheet, even in a scenario in which oil is cheaper compared to the previous quarter.
According to XP, cited by Seu Dinheiro, Brent averaged US$96.8 per barrel between July and September, an 8% drop compared to the second quarter. Analysts interviewed by the report, who were not identified, estimate that the record volume could sustain the result even with the price falling.
The point that most attracts the investor's attention is the size of the earnings. According to Money Times, Itaú BBA projects US$4.2 billion for 3Q26, with a yield of 3.2%, the highest estimate among those cited. BTG Pactual has US$3.6 billion, with a yield of 2.5%, and Safra, US$3.1 billion, with a yield of around 2.5%.
The difference between projections shows that there is still no consensus on how much the company will distribute. The third quarter balance sheet is scheduled for November 11th, after the markets close, according to Seu Dinheiro and Money Times. It is in this document that the market will have the answer.
The headline of Seu Dinheiro summarizes the thesis under discussion: the company could protect its earnings from the fall in oil prices precisely because of its operational performance. To achieve this, the volume produced would need to compensate for the lower revenue per barrel.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the action, the November 11th balance sheet should focus attention on two numbers: the value actually distributed and the company's ability to maintain earnings with falling oil. If the distribution is close to the highest projection, the yield tends to gain weight in the discussion. If it stays close to the lower estimates, the market reading could change. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price forecast.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
