Petrobras delivers strong operational quarter and banks are already projecting billion-dollar earnings
The state-owned company released operational figures with production records, and the focus now turns to the balance sheet on November 11th, after the market closes.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 3 MIN
Petrobras (PETR4) returned to the market's spotlight before the balance sheet. On the evening of the 28th, the state-owned company released the operational figures for the quarter, with production at record levels, according to Money Times. For the investor looking for income, the most relevant data comes later: the expectation about how much the company will pay its shareholders.
The full results for the third quarter will be released on November 11, after the market closes. Until then, the operational numbers serve as the basis for the projections that the analysis houses make about the distribution of money to shareholders.
According to Money Times, BTG Pactual estimates that Petrobras will pay US$3.6 billion in payments in the period, with a yield of 2.5%. Safra works with US$3.1 billion and a return of close to 2.5%. Itaú BBA is the most optimistic among those mentioned, with an estimate of US$4.2 billion and a yield of 3.2%. Yield measures the return in earnings in relation to the share price.
The dispersion between projections draws attention. The difference between the lowest and highest estimates reaches US$1.1 billion, which shows that analysts still do not agree on the size of the distribution. The payment of dividends depends on cash generation, the level of investments and management policy, and it is precisely this account that the market tries to anticipate.
For those who defend fiscal responsibility and free markets, the distribution of cash to shareholders is a good sign when it results from the generation of results and not debt. A company that converts production into profit and returns part of it to the investor disciplines its own management and increases trust in private capital.
What changes for the investor
The scenario for those who follow the state-owned company for dividends is one of high expectations, but there are still no official earnings numbers. The November 11th balance sheet will show whether the operational force becomes cash for distribution. If earnings are close to the upper range of projections, the yield tends to gain weight in the debate about the share. If they fall below, the market will need to review assumptions. In both cases, it is worth comparing the estimates with what the company officially announces, without basing decisions solely on third-party projections.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
