Ibovespa falls for the fourth time in a row and closes at 169,186 points; dollar rises to R$5.38 and Nasdaq futures lose 2.60%
Fiscal uncertainty and rising long interest rates weigh on Brazil, while Alphabet falls 12% after earnings and New York operates in the red with a bet on interest rate hikes by the Fed
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · 3 MIN
The Ibovespa closed this Thursday (29) at 169,186.42 points, with a drop of 1.06%, the fourth in a row. The dollar ended the day at R$5.38, up 0.56%. In New York, futures fell: Nasdaq lost 2.60%, S&P 500 fell 0.94% and Dow Jones lost 0.39%.
Brazil: stock market falling, dollar and long interest rates on the rise
The local market was pressured by fiscal uncertainty, with investors waiting for government signals on economic policy and the more fragile external scenario. Long interest rates rose: the DI for January 2035 closed up 10 basis points, with a maximum of 15.385%, in a market sensitive to the consequences of Lula's victory.
The official data of the day did not help. The federal public debt rose 0.97% in September and reached R$9.383 trillion, and the general government's gross debt reached 82.9% of GDP, the highest level since March 2021, according to the Central Bank. Federal state-owned companies, in turn, accumulated a deficit of R$2.014 billion in the month, the largest in the series for September.
In political news, Money Times reports that Lula is expected to invite the re-elected governor of Piauí, Rafael Fonteles, to the Ministry of Finance and speak to the nation next week. On another front, the chief economist at BTG Pactual, Mansueto Almeida, defended spending control as a path to lower interest rates, stating that the growth in spending puts pressure on inflation and makes it difficult to lower interest rates.
Abroad: Alphabet and bet on interest rates weigh on New York
New York stock markets fell with bets on interest rate hikes by the Fed and with Alphabet's 12% drop after the balance sheet. Shares of Google's parent company entered bearish territory and triggered the technical signal known as the “death cross”, although some indicators suggest a possible reversal. European stock markets, on the contrary, closed mostly higher after the ECB's decision.
The VIX advanced 1.71%, to 17.20 points. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.99%, down 1.11%, and the DXY index fell 0.32% to 101.87. WTI oil was practically stable, at US$ 102.76 (−0.02%). According to MarketWatch, the conflict in the Gulf has lasted eight months and is disrupting shipping, with oil projected to be expensive for longer. Gold fell 0.50% to US$4,031.30 and bitcoin lost 3.09% to US$78,749.44.
MarketWatch's analysis of the «Largest Single Predictor» indicator also circulated in the market, which projects weak returns for American stocks over the next 10 years and sees the country's record household allocation as a negative sign.
What to follow
The main expectation is the definition of the Finance command and Lula's address to the nation, scheduled for next week, amid market concern about the trajectory of public accounts and long interest rates. Abroad, investors remain attentive to the Fed's bet on interest rate hikes, the split in Alphabet's shares after the balance sheet and the impact of the conflict in the Gulf on the price of oil.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
