Vale rises among the biggest Ibovespa risers even after weak balance in 3Q26

Vale (VALE3) was among the biggest risers on the Ibovespa on Friday (30), even after a third quarter balance sheet that the market considered weak. According to Exame, the mining company made a profit of US$1.26 billion in 3Q26, a drop of 53% compared to the same period in 2025. The share had already risen on Thursday (29), one day after the announcement, and advanced again in the following session, when the main stock market index was heading for its fifth consecutive drop.

Analysts cited by Money Times point to the pressure on iron ore as the main point of attention to the result. At the same time, they assess that cash generation proved to be resilient, which indicates that the operation continues to convert revenue into cash even in a scenario of more difficult prices.

In the conference call held on Friday, the company presented perspectives and cost control strategies, according to Money Times. According to Seu Dinheiro's report, Vale expects cost pressure to lose strength in the fourth quarter, after the impacts felt between July and September. The company also projects stable indicators for 4Q26, despite fluctuations in input and fuel prices.

Part of this relief, according to the company itself, comes from maritime transport initiatives, which would have avoided around US$3 billion in costs throughout 2026. This data helps to understand why part of the market looked at operational discipline and not just the drop in accounting profit.

The case of Usiminas (USIM5) shows how investors react to unexpected numbers. The steelmaker made a profit of R$243 million in 3Q26, reversing a loss of R$3.5 billion in 3Q25, but was below the Bloomberg consensus, which predicted R$280 million. According to Seu Dinheiro, the shares fell 3.47%, to R$5.28, at around 12:05 pm on Friday, among the biggest falls on the Ibovespa.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow Vale, the discussion stops focusing only on the third quarter's profit and starts to revolve around the trajectory of costs and the behavior of iron ore in the next balance sheets. If the company confirms the loss of strength from the cost pressure expected for 4Q26, the weak result tends to be read as a one-off quarter. If this is not confirmed, resistant cash generation becomes the main argument in favor of the company. In both cases, it is worth monitoring the numbers in the next release paying attention to what the company actually delivers.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.