Former Navy sniper macrostrategist sees six to 12 months of growth and warns of retreat
According to MarketWatch, macro strategist Alex Barrow sees six to 12 months of upside, while the new food stamp rule goes into effect on November 7th.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MARKETWATCH · 2 MIN
According to MarketWatch, Alex Barrow, founder of Macro Ops and former Navy sniper, now works as a macro strategist and states that the bull market still has six to 12 months to go. For those who invest in the stock market, the projection attracts attention precisely because it is accompanied by a warning.
The warning is that the moment is difficult and that the retreat, when it happens, will be painful for unprepared investors. In the macro strategist's reading, the rise may continue, but those who enter without a risk plan tend to feel the next downward movement more. The message combines optimism about the deadline with caution about execution.
The discussion about the market shares space with a topic of direct interest to the pocket. According to Exame, the new meal voucher and food voucher rule (VR and VA) comes into force on November 7th and expands the acceptance of these benefits across the country. In practice, the rule seeks to expand the places where these vouchers can be used.
The point of attention is in the preparation. According to Exame, Abrasel states that the market is not ready for the new rule this month. When the deadline is short, the risk of mismatch increases, and this is the point raised by the entity.
Seen from afar, the two themes have a common thread: the importance of clear rules and sufficient time to adjust. For an editorial line that defends fiscal responsibility and free markets, the predictability of the rules weighs as much as the direction of change. What is at stake is who prepares in advance and who is caught by surprise.
What changes for the investor
The news does not identify companies or assets linked to the meal voucher rule, so any direct effect on prices remains in the realm of hypothesis. The period of six to 12 months cited by Barrow, if the bullish cycle actually extends, calls for attention to the size of positions and a plan for an eventual pullback. In the case of vouchers, the effect will depend on how quickly the sector adapts to the new rule, precisely the point at which Abrasel sees unpreparedness this month. Those who follow the market therefore have two variables to observe: the pace of the cycle and the companies' ability to adapt to regulatory changes.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
