Short week in Brazil with Copom on Wednesday and legislative elections in the United States

The week starts off shortened in Brazil, as Monday (02/11) is the All Souls' Day holiday, and the center of attention is on Wednesday (04/11), when the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) announces the Selic. According to Seu Dinheiro, the announcement is scheduled for 6:30 pm. According to InfoMoney, it is the Central Bank's first decision since the presidential elections, which gives the meeting extra weight for investors.

The market is already working with the possibility of interrupting the Selic cutting cycle, according to InfoMoney. For those who operate interest rates, the dollar and the stock market, this turnaround is important because the base rate serves as a reference for the cost of credit and the required return on all other investments.

Itaú analysts expect a unanimous decision, but assess that the base scenario has worsened, due to an adverse external environment and internal inflationary pressures. According to the bank, inflation expectations are already unmoored and are expected to worsen further, according to InfoMoney. This diagnosis reduces the scope for a speech of relief.

On the political level, InfoMoney points to uncertainty regarding the names that will make up the post-election economic team and the reform agenda. For those who defend fiscal responsibility and an environment with fewer obstacles to the productive sector, these two points weigh as much as inflation, because they define the confidence that the country will meet its bills in the coming years.

In the United States, the week has legislative elections, known as midterm elections, according to InfoMoney and Money Times. The latter reports that part of the market sees more chances of favorable regulation for crypto if the Republicans maintain Congress, an issue linked to the Clarity Act. Also on the agenda is the American payroll, the employment report that usually affects bets on interest rates in the United States, reminds Seu Dinheiro.

In the crypto market, according to Money Times, bitcoin was quoted at US$77,830.77 on Sunday (01/11), at 11 am, with an increase of 0.55% in 24 hours and a drop of 3.06% in the week. Ethereum was at US$2,263.55, up 0.63% on the day and down 2.99% on the week.

What changes for the investor

In practice, reading the Copom statement must be done carefully by those who follow interest and exchange rates. If the Central Bank stops the cuts, as the market already projects, the effect tends to appear in the cost of money and the willingness to use risky assets. Itaú's warnings about inflation and unanchored expectations enter into this calculation, as does the uncertainty regarding the economic team and reforms, which increases fiscal uncertainty. On the external side, the result of the American elections and the payroll could affect global risk appetite and the regulatory debate on crypto. On the company radar, InfoMoney also highlights the review of XP's diagnostics and the 3Q26 balance sheet harvest, which should help separate the sectors most sensitive to the Selic. Investors, therefore, tend to wait for the Copom statement and American data before making any movement.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.