From the USA, Flávio Bolsonaro predicts an economic crisis in the Lula government and talks about an election before 2030
PL senator says that the economy will be the government's main drain and compares the scenario to that of Dilma in 2014 and 2015.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM GAZETA DO POVO · 2 MIN
According to Gazeta do Povo, senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) said, in a live broadcast from the United States on Friday (30), that the economy will be the main factor in the wear and tear of the Lula government. In his assessment, the current economic scenario is worse than that experienced by Dilma in 2014 and 2015.
Flávio stated that Lula will not be able to reconcile the promises made with the situation of public accounts. When projecting the future, he cited the possibility of impeachment of the president and a presidential election before 2030. He also mentioned almost 60 million votes received in the 2022 second round.
The background is a judicial episode. According to Gazeta do Povo, Flávio said he left Brazil with his wife, Fernanda, and two daughters after visiting his father, Jair Bolsonaro, on Monday (26). He was authorized for the 30-minute visit, as a lawyer. The same report informs that the Federal Police served him with a subpoena of a decision by Alexandre de Moraes, from the STF, which ordered the passports to be handed over and prohibited leaving the country.
According to InfoMoney, Flávio arrived in Miami, Florida, on Wednesday (28), violating the STF order. Itamaraty advises Lula to act pragmatically in the face of the case, amid suspicions of help from the governments of the United States and Argentina on his way out. The hypothesis gained strength after a report in The New York Times. The same vehicle reminds us that Lula is the re-elected president and that Flávio was defeated in the second round.
What is at stake goes beyond the electoral dispute. When an opposition politician points out the fiscal crisis and talks about impeachment, the debate starts to revolve around the credibility of the accounts and institutional stability, two topics that weigh on interest rates and exchange rates. The economic wear and tear thesis, however, depends on numbers that will still be released throughout the mandate.
What changes for the investor
For those who invest in the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the central point is fiscal risk. Speeches that indicate difficulties in balancing accounts tend to increase the premium demanded by the market, especially in long interest rates and exchange rates, and the market usually reacts to signals of this type before any concrete decision is made. It is worth monitoring three fronts: the trajectory of public accounts, the evolution of the case in the STF and the government's reaction to the international repercussion. This article does not provide price forecasts or buying or selling guidance.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
