Slippage in the economy could make Lula's 4th term fail, says 4intelligence analyst
Ricardo Ribeiro sees the risk of a stumble in the first year of the new government and points to fiscal policy as a point of attention for the market.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM BLOOMBERG LÍNEA · 2 MIN
According to Bloomberg Línea, President Lula leaves the polls with greater political capital than he had before the election. The gain, however, depends on what happens to the economy. The reservation comes from Ricardo Ribeiro, political analyst at 4intelligence, for whom the capital gained at the polls could be quickly lost if the government stumbles in the economic area.
Ribeiro assesses that there is a risk of stumbling in the first year of the new government. In his view, if market distrust increases and there is an economic crisis in 2027, the 4th term could fail. The statement was made in an interview with the Radar Eleitoral podcast, on Bloomberg Línea.
The central point of the analysis is fiscal policy. According to the same report, Lula has little room to respond to investors' distrust in this field. This means that the government would have reduced space to reverse a negative perception if it gains strength among those who buy and sell assets in the country.
This distrust is not restricted to political debate. Bloomberg Línea states that it defines the outlook for interest rates in Brazil, which places the fiscal agenda as a central topic also for those who invest in fixed income, stock markets and foreign exchange. For the editorial line of The X-Trader News, the lesson is known: the credibility of public accounts remains at the center of the equation, and a government that needs to regain trust has less room for error.
What changes for the investor
Without predicting prices or indicating the purchase and sale of assets, the scenario described by 4intelligence places fiscal policy as a factor to monitor closely. If distrust increases, it tends to weigh on the outlook for interest rates, which Bloomberg Línea directly associates with this factor. Those who operate the stock market, Nasdaq or dollar should observe the signs of economic slowdown and the government's next steps in the fiscal area, since, according to the analysis, it is precisely in this field that the room for maneuver is smaller.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
