Central government records primary surplus of R$4.839 billion in September, higher than expected
The result was slightly above the median of economists consulted by Reuters and was well above the negative balance of the same month of the previous year.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM INFOMONEY · 2 MIN
The central government ended September with a primary surplus of R$4.839 billion, according to data from the National Treasury released on Thursday, October 29th. According to InfoMoney, based on Reuters, the number indicates that revenues exceeded expenses before interest payments on public debt.
The comparison with the same period of the previous year draws attention. The reference pointed out by the investigation is a negative primary balance of R$14.379 billion in the same month of the previous year, which makes the change in sign the most relevant data in the release.
The result was also slightly above what the market expected. Economists consulted by Reuters projected, on average, a surplus of R$4.650 billion for September. The difference is small, but it points to a slightly better number than expected.
The data covers the accounts of the Treasury, the Central Bank and Social Security, which makes it a consolidated reading of the central government and not just the Treasury's cash flow. For those who follow the budget, this scope matters because it brings together components that are usually analyzed separately.
For those who defend fiscal responsibility, a month in the black is positive news, but it does not end the discussion. A monthly result depends on specific revenues and expenses, and the available calculation does not include the accumulated result for the year, which would be necessary to evaluate the trajectory of public accounts. The most careful reading is to treat the number as a favorable sign to be confirmed in the coming months.
What changes for the investor
The first effect of a surplus above expectations is one of perception: the market tends to read the data as a sign of control over the accounts, which can alleviate pressure on the fiscal risk premium. This movement usually appears in future interest rates and exchange rates, but the relationship is not automatic and depends on what comes later, such as the fulfillment of fiscal targets and the evolution of debt. This article does not provide recommendations for the purchase or sale of assets or price projections, and serves as a context to follow the topic.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
