Kalshi raises US$ 1 billion in round co-led by Sequoia and reaches US$ 40 billion in valuation

Kalshi, a predictive markets platform founded by Brazilian Luana Lara, raised US$1 billion in a Series G round and is now valued at US$40 billion. The data is from Bloomberg Línea, which also points to the operation as the only major announcement of the week in venture capital between the United States and Brazil.

The round was co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management. According to the report, Kalshi wants to become a next-generation financial exchange, an ambition that puts the company in conversation with the traditional trading market, and not just the betting public.

Predictive markets are platforms where participants trade contracts linked to the outcome of future events, and the price of each contract works as an estimate of probability. This format gains relevance when a business created using it attracts significant capital.

The article also places the movement in the Brazilian political context, in which the elections have already been defined, with the re-election of Lula (PT). For investors here, the case draws attention less because of the local scenario and more because of the fact that a Brazilian founder leads a company valued at US$40 billion.

What changes for the investor

The round does not directly change the price of any listed asset, but it signals that large managers see predictive markets as a new layer of trading, possibly competing with traditional brokers and exchanges if the model advances. It is worth monitoring three points: the evolution of the product, the applicable regulation and the company's ability to sustain a valuation of US$40 billion. When reading this page, it is the market that decides whether the model prospers, and not the enthusiasm that surrounds a fundraising round.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.