Garman, from Eurasia, predicts a short honeymoon for Lula and difficulty governing in 2027

The director of Eurasia Group, Christopher Garman, assesses that Lula's (PT) new term should begin with a short initial period, the so-called honeymoon. In an interview with Exame, he predicts a brief phase of political goodwill for the government.

According to Garman, three factors weigh against a smooth start: the slowdown in the economy, voter dissatisfaction and a Congress with a more conservative composition. Together, these elements tend to reduce the space for the Planalto to advance without friction in the first months.

The risk does not end at the beginning of the mandate. According to the interview, Garman foresees possible governance difficulties in 2027.

The conversation also included Lula's victory over Flávio Bolsonaro. Garman analyzed the result of the dispute, and this reading serves as a basis for understanding the political scenario that the government finds from now on.

When dealing with Bolsonarism, the analyst also commented on the future of the movement. The excerpt published by Exame does not provide details about this assessment, which limits the reading about the role of the opposition in the coming years.

For the editorial line of The The answer is still open and largely depends on how the economy reacts in the coming months.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest and operate the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the message is that the government's agenda may face more resistance in Congress at the beginning of its mandate. In this type of environment, expectations about public accounts tend to gain weight in asset prices, and every signal about fiscal adjustment or votes starts to be closely monitored. Garman's analysis does not provide price projections or indicate direction for the markets, but points to governance and the fiscal scenario as the variables to watch in the coming months.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.