Global demand for oil could peak between 2035 and 2040, projects TotalEnergies
Amid the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the French oil company predicts that global consumption will peak between 2035 and 2040.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM INFOMONEY · 3 MIN
TotalEnergies projects that global demand for oil will peak between 2035 and 2040, according to Reuters, from Paris, this Monday (2). The estimate came from the sustainability director of the French oil company and puts a concrete deadline in the discussion about the future of fossil fuels.
According to InfoMoney, the company's scenario predicts that demand for oil derivatives will rise and stabilize in the 2030s, before slowly falling. The change draws attention because the previous year's forecast pointed to an increase in demand until 2040.
According to the same source, the number is part of the company's annual energy outlook report. The drop could be faster if sales of electric vehicles continue to grow, a point that keeps the debate about the energy transition alive.
On the same day, Donald Trump spoke to the Pod Force One podcast and stated that the United States has not yet “finished the job” in the war against Iran. He said that Tehran wants to continue talks for an agreement and that Washington can “take further action”.
Trump also claimed to have overthrown two Iranian regimes and said Iran “cannot have nuclear weapons.” Regarding an agreement, he replied “We’ll see”. He has factored into the conflict the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and claimed that oil stocks are above pre-war levels. These are statements made by Trump himself, and it is up to the reader to follow independent stock data.
The two themes intersect. On the one hand, there is a long-term projection in which demand peaks in the 2030s and begins to decline. On the other hand, there is an immediate conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, a sensitive passage for the oil market. Trump, in turn, defended the rise of stock markets and the success of the United States economy.
What changes for the investor
For those who invest or operate in energy, TotalEnergies' projection raises a question of timing: if demand peaks in the 2030s, the long-term value of oil companies will depend on how they react to that scenario. The conflict with Iran and the mention of the closure of Hormuz could weigh on supply and risk perception in the short term. It is worth monitoring negotiations, inventory data and the pace of electric vehicle sales, factors mentioned in the statements. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price projections.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
