Ian Bremmer predicts blue wave in midterms and pressure on Trump's cabinet

A blue wave in the US legislative elections could isolate Trump and test the loyalty of his cabinet. The assessment is from political scientist Ian Bremmer, according to Exame, who predicts a Democratic victory comfortably in both the Chamber and the Senate.

Voting takes place this Tuesday, 3rd, in the format of midterms, the name given to mid-term legislative elections. As the prediction has not yet been confirmed at the polls, the reader should treat it as an expectation, and not as a result.

Bremmer is founder and president of the consultancy Eurasia Group. In his reading, according to Exame, a result in this direction would have an effect beyond the score: it would leave Trump with less support in Congress and expose members of his own cabinet to a test of loyalty.

The weight of the dispute lies with the Legislature. An opposition majority in both houses tends to reduce the government's room for maneuver to approve its own agenda, be it budgetary or otherwise. Therefore, the composition of Congress matters as much as the result itself.

For those who follow public accounts, the point of attention is the ability of Congress to approve or block changes in spending and taxes. This is the terrain in which Bremmer's prediction gains practical relevance.

What changes for the investor

For those who operate the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the design of Congress tends to matter because it sets the pace for issues such as budget, taxes and regulation. If the forecast is confirmed, the difficulty in approving part of the government's agenda could increase uncertainty about fiscal and regulatory policy, and it is through this channel that the result tends to reach assets. It is worth following the final count and the first votes of the new Congress. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price projections.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.