Ibovespa falls for the fourth consecutive session due to fiscal fears and pressure from Wall Street

The Ibovespa fell again this Thursday (29) and accumulated the fourth consecutive session of losses, at a time when the market is looking for clearer signals about the direction of public accounts. According to Times Brasil, the index fell 0.83% at 1:53 pm, at 169,579.13 points. InfoMoney, at another time, registered a drop of 0.95% at 12:40 pm, at 169,360 points.

The sequence began on Monday (26), the first trading session after Lula's re-election, when the index plummeted 13.88%, according to Times Brasil. On Tuesday (27), the drop was 0.51%. On Wednesday (28), the Ibovespa fell 2.68% and closed at 171,006.10 points.

Still according to Times Brasil, two factors explain investors' bad mood: uncertainty about the Lula government's fiscal policy and the fall in Wall Street. The two themes come together, as doubt about public accounts weighs on Brazilian assets at the same time that abroad also reduces appetite for risk.

Among the other signs of the day, InfoMoney reports that iron ore rose 2.4% on the Dalian exchange, in China, while Petrobras (PETR4) recorded growth in oil production and oil fell. This Thursday's agenda brings together the IGP-M and fiscal data, which are on investors' radar.

Regarding foreign exchange, Money Times recorded that, on Wednesday, the dollar in cash opened at R$5.3676, up 0.51%, in line with the DXY, the six-currency basket index that marked 102,238 points. On the same date, the Ibovespa futures contract (INDFUT) fell 0.06%, to 173,200 points, around 9 am.

On the interest rate side, Ágora Investimentos assesses, according to Money Times, that the curve still prices a small cut in the Selic at the next Copom meeting. The same house recalled that Ibovespa had accumulated three consecutive drops and that the day's fiscal data was on the radar.

What is at stake is the credibility of fiscal policy. For those who defend responsibility with public accounts, the trajectory of spending and debt is the main factor capable of altering the premium demanded by investors, which is why every signal on the subject is usually read carefully by the market.

What changes for the investor

The situation of fiscal uncertainty, added to the pressured exchange rate and expectations for the Copom, could maintain volatility in the stock markets and in assets more sensitive to interest and the dollar. In practice, it is worth monitoring the next fiscal data, the Selic decision and the behavior of the American currency, which directly influence the pricing of companies and the index itself. This material does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell assets.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.