Industrial entity cuts 2026 GDP forecast to 1.6% with high interest rates weighing
Downward revision comes from weaker industry and services, while agriculture gains projection; inflation estimated at 5.15% and Selic at 13.25% at the end of the year.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 2 MIN
The Brazilian economy's growth forecast in 2026 fell from 2% to 1.6%, according to Money Times, which attributes the cut to the CNI. The review is included in the 3rd quarter Economic Report, released on Wednesday (28).
According to the publication, the main reason is a weaker than expected performance for the manufacturing industry and services. High interest rates and a slowdown in domestic demand appear as factors putting pressure on production.
In sectoral numbers, the projection for the industry in 2026 went from an increase of 2% to an increase of 1.3%, and the manufacturing industry is expected to record a decline of 0.7%. Services were also revised, from an increase of 1.9% to an increase of 1.6%. On the contrary, agriculture had its estimate raised from 1.8% to 2.5%, which offsets part of the loss in other sectors.
The interest rate framework is the backdrop for the discussion. According to the same survey, inflation should be at 5.15% in 2026, and the Selic should end the year at 13.25% per year. With the cost of money at this level, credit becomes more expensive for families and companies, which tends to slow down consumption and investment.
From the perspective of fiscal responsibility and the free market, the review reinforces a central point of the economic debate: without predictability in public accounts, falling interest rates becomes more difficult, and activity pays the bill. Brazil enters 2027 with a divided economy, with the countryside on the rise and industry and services slowing down.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the data signals attention to sectors linked to the domestic market, such as industry and services, whose projections have been revised downwards. A Selic projected at 13.25% per year at the end of 2026 keeps the cost of capital high, which tends to weigh more heavily on companies dependent on credit and domestic consumption. The expected increase in agriculture indicates a segment with a better outlook in the survey. These are projection scenarios, not buy or sell indications, and do not allow you to predict price behavior.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
