Itaú cuts growth forecast to 0.5% in 2027 and sees inflation above target
According to Revista Oeste, the bank reviewed the scenario on Friday, the 30th, and projects Selic at 13.75% throughout 2027.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM REVISTA OESTE · 2 MIN
Itaú reduced its GDP growth projection for 2027 from 1.2% to 0.5% and began to see inflation above the target in the same year. According to Revista Oeste, the revised scenario was released on Friday, the 30th, and combines weaker activity with more pressured prices.
In the IPCA, the estimate for 2027 rose from 4.6% to 6.1%. The inflation target is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down, which sets the ceiling at 4.5%. According to the bank's projection, the index is 1.6 percentage points above this limit.
In the case of interest, Itaú's scenario considers the Selic at 13.75% throughout 2027, with no movement to reduce the basic rate in the period. In other words, the bank does not work on monetary relief within the review horizon.
The 2026 framework has also been adjusted, on a smaller scale. The year's GDP went from 1.7% to 1.6%, while the IPCA went from 5.1% to 5.2%, according to the same survey.
What is at stake is the balance between growth and prices. When inflation remains above the center of the target and interest rates do not fall, the cost of credit remains high for companies and families, and activity tends to lose steam. This combination of weak expansion and high inflation is precisely the type of scenario that weighs on the decisions of those who invest in variable income.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the review signals high interest rates for a longer period of time until 2027. This scenario tends to weigh more heavily on companies dependent on credit and domestic consumption and tends to make fixed income more competitive compared to variable income. Inflation above the ceiling also deserves attention in the exchange rate, as expectations of high real interest rates influence the flow of capital. These are possible effects, which depend on the reaction of other agents and upcoming data. The projection belongs to a single bank and does not anticipate prices, so it is worth monitoring inflation numbers and signs about the Selic before drawing conclusions.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
