The right discusses an alternative to Bolsonaro for 2030, and Tarcísio enters the radar after Lula’s re-election

With Lula's re-election as a backdrop, guest analysts from PrimoCast, a program on the channel O Primo Rico, discussed whether governor Tarcísio de Freitas could emerge as an alternative to the Bolsonaro family on the right in a future election. The predominant assessment in the debate was that this is unlikely, given the politician's gratitude to the former president.

According to the participants, Tarcísio owes a lot to Jair Bolsonaro, who, in the words of one of the analysts, "put him on the map". Therefore, in the group's view, he would hardly position himself as an opponent of the family. The conversation had a relaxed tone: the presenters joked about the possibility of the governor closely following the discussions about the next name on the ticket and accepting the invitation only if he was called.

Another analyst considered that the outcome will depend on how the Bolsonaro family's popularity evolves over the next four years. For him, the group is unlikely to give up its leading role on the right, and the tendency is that it does not want to "let go of that bone".

The cost of tying the right to a single project

One of the guests, who declared himself more to the right, recalled the reflection he made in 2018, when Bolsonaro grew up driven by anti-PTism. At the time, according to him, there was an opportunity for change, but also the risk of the image of the right being associated with the eventual failure of the government.

In the analyst's assessment, this risk has materialized. Today, he stated, those who declare themselves to be right-wing feel ashamed to say so publicly, for fear of being the target of attacks and a series of adjectives.

Hence, according to him, the demand for alternatives: the moderate right and the center-right would have a lot of people interested in a different option. The analyst said he saw a "contracted" drop in popularity for Bolsonarism, but considered that the 2030 scenario is still uncertain.

What does this mean for the investor

The debate was political and did not directly deal with the stock market, interest rates, the dollar or public accounts. Still, the discussion about who will represent the center-right camp, favorable to fiscal responsibility and the free market, is a factor that is usually followed by those who assess the long-term environment for the country.

The program, which brought together Finclass analysts to discuss the path of the Brazilian economy over the next four years, highlighted the need to separate what is relevant for investments from what is just political noise. For participants, 2030 is still too far away for firm predictions.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.