Republicans and Democrats redraw districts in Texas, Florida and California and compete for the US House majority

The dispute for control of the United States House of Representatives has gained a new front: the redefinition of electoral districts in key states such as Texas, Florida and California. According to presenter Bill Hemmer, from Fox Business, both parties are trying to use the new maps to expand their benches, and the effect will be measured on Tuesday night.

Today, Republicans have the narrowest possible majority: 219 seats, compared to 214 for Democrats. According to the channel, the numbers should change by Wednesday, and what will be known then is by how much. Hemmer said nine states have redrawn their lines, including Texas, Louisiana and Florida, and that Republicans in California and Utah have pushed back against Democrats.

The maps, state by state

In Florida, the 2024 election resulted in 20 Republican deputies and 8 Democrats, with a concentration of Democratic districts in the Orlando region, in the center, and in the south of the state. According to Hemmer, the Republican goal for 2026 is to increase the bench to 24 seats, making this blue disappear on the map.

In Texas, the 2024 result was 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats. The objective now, according to the presenter, is to reach 30, a gain of five seats, especially in the Rio Grande Valley, in the south, a region that was Democratic. He noted that it is not known whether the plan will work.

California, a majority Democratic state, had 43 Democrats and 9 Republicans. Democrats aim to reach 48 seats, which would leave only four Republicans in the delegation, with advances expected in the north of the state. Hemmer recalled that both parties are in this dispute and that the result is uncertain.

The risk of the map not following the voter

Presenter Martha MacCallum assessed that the initiatives sought to freeze the 2024 scenario and concentrate the lines around it. According to her, if voter sentiment changes, a party could end up creating a district that is unfavorable to itself. Hemmer also questioned whether, by redistributing voters across different parts of the state, some party had reduced its own impact.

The data that fuels this doubt comes from the broadcaster's own research: Hispanic voters' support for Donald Trump fell from 43% in 2024 to 31% in the October poll, a difference of 12 points. According to Hemmer, this public, which migrated from the Democratic Party and gave an important boost to Trump in 2024, is decisive in the Rio Grande Valley, in Texas, and in places like Florida.

Martha stated that, among Hispanic voters, some trends treat the issue as immigration, but the research indicates that, for them, the central issue is the economy. Hemmer concluded that, if so, these voters are in contention and want to support whoever convinces them that the economy will help their families and their livelihood.

What to watch for the market

For the investor, the composition of the Chamber matters because it is where budget, tax and spending projects are born. The transcript does not deal with the stock market, interest rates or the dollar, and any reading about these assets will depend on the results of the polls. What the channel highlights is that the economy is the factor that can decide a relevant portion of the electorate and, consequently, the balance of forces in Washington.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.