Default by families and companies breaks record with five years of high interest rates, points to debate on debt

Eighty-two percent of Brazilian families are in debt, a record level, and 84 million Brazilians are in default, a historic record. The numbers were presented in episode no. 321 of the Os Sócios podcast, conducted by Bruno Perini, with the participation of Leanderson Reis and Thiago Hagui, and raised by the participants themselves during the conversation.

The picture extends to the most recent credit. According to data cited in the program, defaults in private payroll loans, a modality created recently, already reach 10%. Along these lines, the installment is deducted by the company and goes directly to paying the debt, without going through the worker's account, and even then there are those who default. Among companies, the default rate is at the highest level in 15 years, with 9.1 million companies in this situation, according to the survey cited.

Five years of high interest rates

In the presenter's assessment, the result reflects five years of high interest rates. He remembers that the Selic rate remained at 15% for a long time and that this level is just the starting point: it is what the government pays to those who lend it money. For credit to individuals, the bank charges much more than that.

As an example, the debate cited a rate of 4% per month on payroll, even with the guarantee of payroll deduction. According to the calculation made in the program, this is equivalent to around 60% per year. According to the presenter, no investment yields this percentage predictably: even Bitcoin, in a very good year, does not offer certainty, because, in his words, no one has a crystal ball. Therefore, he assessed, taking credit under these conditions to invest is not worth it, and taking it to consume makes the money disappear, like the pizza ordered through iFood and paid for with interest.

The proposed path: budget, agreement and savings

For those who are already in debt, one of the participants divided the exit into stages. The first is to understand the current standard of living: how much you earn, how much you spend and what the deficit is. Then make consumer choices. The example given was that of someone who orders food three times a week, around 12 orders per month: reducing this to twice a week would already represent a 30% cut in this expense.

According to the guest, it is also possible to review insurance policies made without risk criteria. The first goal, in his view, is to reach a zero-to-zero budget, without a deficit. Then, the task is to generate a surplus.

This is where renegotiation comes in. Debts can be negotiated, either with credit bureaus or at fairs held throughout the year. According to the guest, however, it is necessary to have savings: with cash resources, the negotiation capacity is greater and discount margins reach 80% or 90%.

The last alert was behavioral. Procrastination, said the participant, leads the person to leave the decision for the following Monday, and thus the year ends. The group's recommendation was to ask professionals for help and decide quickly, even though the debate does not detail steps beyond those described.

For the market, the numbers suggest that the cost of consumer credit, combined with high basic interest rates, weighs on family budgets and the financial health of companies. The transcript, however, does not contain projections about the stock market, dollar or public accounts.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.