Oil retreats on diplomatic efforts in the Middle East as stocks react mixed

Oil retreated on Monday (2/11), and the movement coincided with a day for stock markets without a single direction in the world. According to Money Times, the commodity fell in trading, Europe opened mixed on the first business day of November and New York advanced in the pre-market. For the Brazilian investor, the session had a particularity: B3 did not work.

In Asia, the picture was also heterogeneous. According to Times Brasil, Asian stock markets closed mixed, but Seoul stood out with an increase of 2.2%, driven by semiconductor shares. Hybe, owner of the BTS group, fell 1.3% before the release of its balance sheet.

The backdrop is a difficult last week of October for risk assets. According to Money Times, global stocks fell during this period. Times Brasil reported that, in the previous week, investors reduced exposure to technology stocks. Monday's recovery, therefore, comes after a change of positions and not a generalized movement.

In oil, the dominant factor is geopolitical. According to Times Brasil, the commodity fell with diplomatic efforts to end the war in the Middle East. On the supply side, OPEC+ maintained production targets for December in an online meeting on Sunday (1/11), according to InfoMoney. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman participated in the decision. Gulf members have increased their exports, hampered for months by the war with Iran, and most of these countries produce well below targets.

In the United States, futures rose with the focus on the midterm elections, scheduled for Tuesday (3/11), according to Investing.com. Still on Monday, Apple released its 3Q26 results after closing, which left big tech at the center of attention of those who follow technology at the beginning of the week.

What is at stake is the combination of three variables: the evolution of diplomatic negotiations in the Middle East, OPEC+ production policy and the political outcome in the United States. As the market was already reducing exposure to technology, Apple's balance sheet and the American vote could be decisive for the mood of the next trading sessions.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest and operate, Monday's reading calls for caution and selectivity. A sustained drop in oil tends to weigh on energy-related companies and can alleviate costs in other sectors, but the effect depends on how much and for how long prices remain at this level. OPEC+'s decision to maintain the targets, coupled with the fact that the majority of producers are below them, shows that supply remains conditioned by the war and not just by the cartel's decisions. Apple's results and the American elections are events with the potential to change risk aversion in the coming trading sessions. It is worth following diplomatic communiqués, production figures and the impact of balance sheets, without drawing conclusions from a single trading day.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.