Mansueto Almeida defends expense control as a path to lower interest rates

For Mansueto Almeida, partner and chief economist at BTG Pactual, Brazil's fiscal challenge is more direct than it usually appears in the public debate. According to him, the central issue is "controlling expenditure growth". The statement was made in the "Macroeconomic Scenario" panel, at the closing of the BTG Trader 2026 Cup, according to Money Times.

According to Money Times, the economist's thesis is that the structural reduction in interest rates involves containing public spending. In the assessment presented, when expenditure grows above the economy, there is pressure on inflation, the fall in interest rates becomes more difficult and the cost of financing rises, both for the State and for companies.

The reasoning goes beyond the Budget. According to the report, fiscal adjustment should not occur in isolation and must be accompanied by a reform agenda focused on productivity and the business environment. In this reading, the discussion about public accounts is directly connected to the country's ability to grow without fueling inflation.

For those who follow the stock market, the Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the message is that the trajectory of spending appears as one of the variables that determine the price of money. The fiscal issue, therefore, reaches the cost of credit and investment decisions.

What changes for the investor

Mansueto's speech reinforces that structurally lower interest rates depend on public accounts being under control, something that the market tends to monitor closely in interest rate-sensitive assets. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. The point of attention is to check whether expenditure will continue to grow below the economy and whether the aforementioned reforms are progressing, as these signs influence the cost of financing for the State and companies.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.