Focus raises interest rates and inflation while bets and Selective Tax are on the agenda

According to Revista Oeste, in the program Oeste Sem Filtro on November 3, three topics dominated the agenda in Brasília: bets, the Focus Bulletin and the Selective Tax rate that the government is preparing to send to Congress. They all affect the cost of money and the mood of those who invest in the stock market, interest rates and the dollar.

In the case of betting, President Lula called for pressure from civil society against betting. In parallel, Janja delivered a report on the betting market to Minister Fux. Fux, in turn, defended banning these bets and said he had heard from entities opposed to the sector.

The dispute also has an institutional component. Gilmar Mendes criticized the TSE's conduct in the elections, without mentioning Kassio. The episode shows that the electoral debate remains on the radar of Supreme Court ministers while bets and public accounts compete for space.

The Focus Bulletin brought the most sensitive data to the financial market. According to Revista Oeste, inflation and interest projections rose, while the GDP growth estimate fell. Higher interest rates combined with weaker activity change the cost of money and the reading on companies' profits, which is why the report is closely monitored by managers and small investors.

In the fiscal area, a minister, whose name was not given in the source, stated that the government should send the Selective Tax rate to Congress this Tuesday (3/11). Also according to Revista Oeste, the government predicts a 34% increase in EBC funding for 2027. For the editorial line of this newspaper, which defends fiscal responsibility, less taxes and free markets, the combination of new taxation with more public spending deserves attention.

In Congress, succession is already taking shape. Novo will have its own candidate for president of the Chamber, and Tereza Cristina's candidacy for command of the Senate remains maintained. These internal disputes can influence the processing of fiscal issues in both Houses.

What changes for the investor

The most direct effect for those who operate is the combination of projected rising interest rates and inflation with lower growth. Higher interest rates make credit more expensive and tend to weigh more on the shares of companies that depend on future profits, such as most of those listed on the Nasdaq. The Selective Tax rate and the proposed increase for the EBC still depend on details that were not at the source. In the case of bets, Fux's defense of a ban is a position, not a decision, but progress on the topic would bring regulatory risk to the sector. This article does not recommend buying or selling assets and does not estimate prices.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.