Iran says talks to end war continue despite impasse with mediators

According to Money Times, Iran stated on Monday (2/11) that talks with the United States to end the war continue, even after a round of negotiations with Qatari mediators that ended without significant progress. The conflict has already lasted eight months, and the declaration came at a time when the energy market is following every signal coming from the region.

According to Money Times, negotiations between Iran and Qatari mediators ended with amended proposals, without significant progress. Reuters, reproduced by InfoMoney, reported that Iranian negotiators ended the meeting, that a draft proposal is circulating between the parties and that there may be a follow-up meeting, according to an official who was not identified.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, according to the IRNA agency, that everything depends on “Washington's political rationality”. For Tamas Varga, from the PVM brokerage, there is hope for progress in the impasse, according to Reuters. The market's reading, therefore, is that there is an open door, but with no clear sign of an outcome.

Oil fell more than 4% on 2/11, in London, with expectations of an agreement between Iran and Qatar. The central concern of investors, according to the same Reuters, is the interruptions in oil supplies in the Middle East, which directly affect the prices of the commodity.

China and Russia spoke out against new military action against Iran, also on 2/11, according to Money Times. The scenario is sensitive because there is fear of a rekindling of the conflict after the mid-term elections in the United States, scheduled for Tuesday, 3/11, according to Exame.

The same Exame reports that Israel has asked that fighting against Iran resume immediately after the vote in the US, and that the next phase of the war can be defined shortly after the American elections. In other words, the political calendar in Washington starts to weigh as much as the negotiating table.

What is at stake is the continued supply of oil to the region and the possibility of a military escalation that changes the trajectory of the conflict. Meanwhile, diplomacy remains open, with proposals circulating and a possible new meeting on the horizon.

What changes for the investor

For those who operate the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the central point is volatility. Oil reacted strongly to the expectation of an agreement, and sources point to the risk of a rekindling of the conflict after the American election, which tends to keep the news oscillating between relief and risk aversion. In a scenario of high commodity prices, the effect usually affects energy costs and inflation, a variable that weighs on interest rates and exchange rates. Without predicting prices, it is worth monitoring three signs: the outcome of the electoral agenda in the US, the possible follow-up meeting with Qatar and any new news about supply interruptions.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.