Itaú's balance sheet for the 3rd quarter arrives in the week of Copom and Focus after Lula's re-election

Itaú (ITUB4) releases this Tuesday (3/11) the balance sheet for the third quarter of 2026, in a week in which the market looks beyond the bank itself. According to Seu Dinheiro, Itaú is the largest private bank in Latin America, and therefore its accounts usually serve as a reference for the rest of the sector.

The schedule starts with one working day less. According to InfoMoney, B3 was closed on Monday (2/11), the All Souls' Day holiday. For Your Money, the result will be released after the market closes on Tuesday, which leaves the stock's reaction for the following session.

Estimates vary depending on the source. InfoMoney cites LSEG consensus with net profit of R$12.6 billion and revenue of R$48.3 billion. Your Money, based on the Bloomberg consensus, points to a net profit of R$12.714 billion, an increase of 7% in the annual comparison, and an expected ROAE of 23.8%, 0.5 percentage points above a year before.

The backdrop helps measure these expectations. According to Seu Dinheiro, the large banks show a balance between credit growth and the rise in default rates, and their rivals disappointed in 3Q26. In this scenario, a firm result from Itaú can be read as an exception or as a sign of the sector's resilience, depending on the numbers.

The interest rate schedule completes the picture. Tuesday also marks the beginning of the two-day Copom meeting and the release of the Focus Bulletin, the first after Lula's re-election. According to InfoMoney, the survey should show a strong worsening of projections. The Copom options on B3, closing on 10/29, indicated maintaining the Selic at around 70% and a cut of 0.25 percentage points at around 30%.

What is at stake is the combination of two signals: the quality of the bank's credit portfolio and the direction of interest rates that the Copom should signal in the coming days.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow the stock, the balance works as a test of confidence in the sector. A profit within consensus and a ROAE close to expectations would reinforce the solidity reading, while a result below estimates or a heavier default would fuel the caution already seen among rivals. The Copom's decision and the Focus' tone, in turn, could redesign interest rate projections and, with it, the appetite for banks and the stock market as a whole. This article does not provide a recommendation to buy or sell: it is up to the reader to evaluate the numbers released and monitor the reaction of the shares.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.