Itaú (ITUB4) takes 3Q26 report to Copom and Focus week after rivals disappoint

After rivals that disappointed in 3Q26, the market turns its eyes to Itaú (ITUB4). According to Seu Dinheiro, the bank will release its third-quarter balance sheet on Tuesday, November 3, after the close of trading, and the expectation is that it will show why it plays in another league.

The Bloomberg consensus points to net profit of R$12.714 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year. ROAE, a measure of profitability on equity, should reach 23.8%, 0.5 percentage points above the same period in 2025. LSEG projects a profit of R$12.6 billion and revenue of R$48.3 billion for the quarter.

Seu Dinheiro reminds us that Itaú is cited as the largest private bank in Latin America. For the large banks as a whole, the picture combines growing credit with rising default rates, and it is against this background that the balance sheet will be read. Analysts interviewed by InfoMoney point to Itaú as the favorite of most houses among the large banks.

The week is also a heavy schedule for the trading session. B3 was closed on Monday, 2/11, due to the All Souls' Day holiday, and will operate again on Tuesday. On the same day, the Focus Bulletin comes out, the first since Lula's re-election, and the two-day Copom meeting begins. According to InfoMoney, the expectation is for a strong worsening in the indicator projections in Focus.

In Copom options traded on B3, closing on 10/29, Selic maintenance appears at around 70% and a cut of 0.25 percentage points at around 30%. Maintenance was in the minority before the election, and interest contracts already include residual high bets. In other words, the investor arrives at the balance sheet with the interest curve and fiscal projections still in dispute.

Interest and credit are the two variables that weigh the most on banks, and that is why Itaú's balance sheet tends to be read together with the Focus and the Copom decision. The question that remains is whether the bank can sustain profitability while default rates rise.

What changes for the investor

If profit and ROAE come close to consensus, the result reinforces the reading that Itaú remains a reference for quality in the sector, and the stock's reaction tends to depend on the tone of the balance sheet regarding credit and default. A profit below estimates, especially with higher provisions, would highlight the bank's resilience in a still uncertain interest cycle. In any scenario, Focus and Copom will change the backdrop of bank shares throughout the week, and it is worth monitoring the numbers before drawing conclusions.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.