Trump could lose Congress even with loyal voters, says InfoMoney

In the United States, Tuesday (3) brings the mid-term legislative elections, and the question that guides the analysis is straightforward: can Trump lose Congress even though he keeps his voters loyal? According to InfoMoney, the topic was discussed in the special Risk Map, vehicle policy program.

Trump was elected president in 2024, and a large part of the base that brought him to office remains with him. According to polls cited by InfoMoney, between 77% and 80% of Trump voters in 2024 intend to support Republican candidates this year. In other words, the electorate that voted for him appears, to a large extent, aligned with the party.

On the other side, the picture is similar. Among Kamala Harris voters, the intention to support Democrats this year is between 87% and 90%, according to the same survey. With such firm foundations on both sides, the dispute largely depends on who is not closed with either of them.

InfoMoney's central thesis is that a leader's personal popularity and the party's vote are not the same thing. Trump can maintain the support of his voters and still see the Republican Party lose control of Congress if the difference between one and the other is large enough. Preserving loyalty to the president, in this reading, does not guarantee a legislative majority.

For the government, this separation matters because the majority in Congress directly influences the ability to approve the president's economic and fiscal agenda. A divided or opposition-controlled Legislature changes the pace of voting and the Executive's negotiating margin. Tuesday's election is therefore more than a test of popularity.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow interest rates, the dollar, the stock market and the Nasdaq, the central point is predictability. If the election changes the balance between the White House and Congress, the change could affect expectations for fiscal policy and the rules that influence these assets. This article does not predict prices or recommend buying or selling. The way forward is to follow Tuesday's count (3) and evaluate how the result translates into a legislative agenda.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.