Trump maintains threat of new military action against Iran, while negotiations remain open

President Donald Trump has once again threatened Iran with new military action, while keeping the diplomatic route open. According to Fox Business, Trump said that the reason the United States has not yet closed the matter with Tehran is that he wants to "be nice" and try to save as many lives as possible, but that at some point it will be necessary to "drop the hammer."

The president recently spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the next steps in the conflict. According to the channel, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not know if there was a deadline and said that the decision was up to the president. Rubio also stated that the conversations never stopped, in some cases directly and, often, through intermediaries.

General Keane's assessment

Retired General Jack Keane, senior strategic analyst for Fox News, assessed that a resumption of fighting would bring costs. In his analysis, the United States would return to major combat operations alongside Israel, and the Iranians would retaliate, with casualties and damage. Keane said Iran retains some capability and that the response is likely to target not only Israel and US bases in the region, but also the oil-producing Gulf states.

According to him, the current offensive would be very different from that of February 28th. Keane stated that there is considerably better intelligence, that American bases have been reinforced and that protection of other critical infrastructure in the Gulf States has increased by more than 300%, as described by Admiral Cooper. In the analyst's assessment, the targets would be more comprehensive and the impact on them would be devastating. He highlighted that they would be military targets.

Keane also cited economic pressure on the regime, in the form of a blockade that prevents the passage of goods through the Strait of Hormuz and seeks to isolate the country. According to the general, these are the options that are on the president's table, who knows the briefings and details and has not yet made a decision.

Hormuz and skepticism about an agreement

Regarding the letter sent by Tehran, Keane said that it will only be positive if the Iranians manage to get the American Navy to lift the blockade, which, in his view, strangles the country. The general stated that this is Iran's main objective in the negotiations.

Keane recalled that the war began on February 28 and was stopped on April 7, after the Iranians, who had closed the strait, said they were willing to reopen it through diplomatic means. According to him, the strait was not opened after the ceasefire, and an agreement signed in June was broken within about 72 hours. The United States then had to reopen the crossing by force, which, according to the general, was done successfully: traffic in other countries returned to pre-war conditions, except that of Iran itself.

For Keane, diplomacy hasn't worked, and he doesn't believe it will. The general said he does not believe that Iran would close a deal on the nuclear issue and that there is a consensus in the US and Israeli governments that, even if it did, Tehran would not comply. He said there is evidence of this.

For investors, the episode keeps the geopolitical risk linked to oil and the Strait of Hormuz, a sensitive route for energy trade, on the radar. The transcript does not contain data on stock markets, interest rates or exchange rates, and the evaluations above are those of the analyst and the channel, not of The X-Trader News.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.