Keane: Iran acts like a predator and six-and-a-half-month diplomacy produced no results, says analyst

Retired four-star general Jack Keane, a senior strategy analyst at Fox, said Iran's regime will remain "a predator" as long as it exists and called for the United States and its allies to work to remove it from power. The assessment was given in an interview with the program "Saturday in America", shown by Fox Business, after the Iranian supreme leader issued a new threat against Washington and Israel.

According to the presenter, the Ayatollah ordered his Armed Forces to place American and Israeli targets within attack range and said that any offensive against Iran will have a "geographically unrestricted" response, that is, without limit to the Middle East. The presenter also cited reports of a meeting between President Donald Trump and senior military commanders. Trump has reportedly repeatedly said that attacks on Iran would continue after the midterm elections, fueling doubts about an imminent resumption of hostilities.

Keane called Tehran's rhetoric "a lot of noise" and said Iran would indeed retaliate if attacked. In his opinion, however, this does not convince Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The analyst said the argument had an effect on the Saudis and the Gulf States, who on previous occasions had asked the president not to move into major combat operations.

Message to the Saudis and review of diplomacy

Keane said his message to the Saudis, who are leading this effort, is clear: the United States has protected the country unofficially, under the "nuclear umbrella," since post-World War II. He recalled that, when the region was on fire, it was the Americans who went there and shed blood. According to the general, the Iranians killed many more Americans than members of Gulf countries, and cited the attack on an embassy, ​​the attack on barracks, around 300 attacks on bases during the Biden administration, improvised bombs in Iraq that killed hundreds of soldiers and a ten-year campaign of kidnappings.

The analyst admitted costs: there would be casualties and damage to part of the Saudi oil infrastructure, but, in his assessment, not a high number of deaths nor the devastation of the oil and gas sector, because the US and allies would have adequate defense capacity and offensive capacity to neutralize much of the Iranian retaliatory capacity. For him, maintaining the status quo is “going in search of defeat”.

Regarding the contact attributed to Vice President JD Vance with a member of Iranian hardliners to try to reopen peace negotiations, the presenter asked if the US would resume the offensive. Keane responded with an assessment of six and a half months of diplomatic effort: Iran is not serious about reaching a meaningful agreement and, even if it signed one, it would not comply. He also criticized the idea that it would be necessary to transfer billions of dollars to the country to help it recover, which, according to him, makes no sense at all. For the general, the negotiation leaves "nothing to show" and would only push the problem to the next government, something that Trump, in the analyst's opinion, does not intend to do.

What to watch for the market

The statements are the opinion of an analyst and do not, in themselves, indicate a decision by the American government. Still, the combination of Iranian threats, reports of military meetings and the possibility of a resumption of actions after the midterm elections increase geopolitical uncertainty in a region central to oil, an issue that usually impacts energy prices, inflation, interest rates, the dollar and stock markets. Keane also mentioned the possibility of damage to Saudi oil infrastructure in a possible conflict, although the transcript does not provide market figures.

For the investor, the central point is to monitor whether the negotiation channel attributed to Vance progresses or whether the White House opts for the military route. Keane argues that the second alternative would be the path to lasting peace, while the first, in his view, would be a "losing" solution.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.