Controversy with namesake in Alaska could redefine Senate race, says Republican strategist

The controversy surrounding a second Dan Sullivan on the Alaska ballot could have a material effect on the state's Senate race, according to John Thomas, managing director of Nestpoint and a veteran Republican strategist and pollster. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, on the program "Balance of Power", he stated that the race is within the margin of error and that the episode could be decisive.

By Thomas' assessment, the Democratic candidate was ahead by about one or two points in most polls. The strategist said that the case has two effects: it undermines the Democrat's confidence and credibility and displaces the debate among voters who are still undecided, who would go from "do they like Trump or not" to "do they think it's fair to be fooled or not". According to him, "elections are fundamentally about trust."

Thomas said it's not surprising to have two candidates with the same name in the same cycle without a push from an opponent. He stated, however, that, according to what was revealed, Democrats had allegedly tried to deceive voters, which, in his opinion, irritates the electorate.

South Carolina, Ohio and Texas

Presenter Kailey Leinz cited research from the New York Times and CNN that points to an essential tie in South Carolina between Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews. Thomas said he didn't believe the survey. In his assessment, Republican voters without a long-term relationship with Graham have not yet returned to the candidate, but they should return. He described President Donald Trump's visits as an "insurance policy" to mobilize the base.

Regarding Ohio, Thomas classified the controversial announcement by Vivek Ramaswamy, candidate for governor, as in bad taste and said it harms the Republican ticket, including Senator John Husted. For the strategist, the play was not effective and was "a step too far", although he believes that Ramaswamy was already at a disadvantage and tried to change the course of the dispute.

In Texas, where, according to the presenter, hundreds of millions of dollars were spent to benefit Ken Paxton, Thomas predicts a narrow victory for the Republican over Democrat Talarico. He attributed Paxton's performance to the candidate's resilience and said the spending helped negatively define the opponent, citing Musk's super PAC. For Thomas, Paxton wins by a margin perhaps smaller than that of Ted Cruz over Beto O'Rourke.

Research and what to observe

Regarding the hypothesis that polls underestimate Republicans, Thomas stated that, in fieldwork, it is more difficult to obtain responses from Republican voters, who are more suspicious of pollsters. He said Trump's strategy is to make the midterm electorate look like a presidential election by mobilizing the base.

Still, the strategist acknowledged that Democrats have a significant advantage in indicators such as the generic ballot and that Trump is down in some areas. For him, however, several disputes are so close, within the margin of error, that they can go either way. For investors, the message of the interview is uncertainty about control of the Senate, something that the market usually follows due to its potential impact on the fiscal and tax agenda.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.