Fox News ranking sees tighter Senate race 48 hours before midterm elections

48 hours before the midterm elections in the United States, the new Fox News Power Rankings changed the assessment of two key states in the Senate race. According to the channel, Kansas went from leaning Republican to a technical tie, and Nebraska, which also leaned towards Republicans, is now leaning towards the opposite side.

According to presenter Griff Jenkins, in Kansas Senator Roger Marshall faces megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton. In Nebraska, Senator Pete Ricketts is competing for the seat with an independent candidate, Navy veteran Dan Osborn, who now appears as a slight favorite in the rankings.

The Senate bill

The ranking classifies seven states as undecided: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas. Jenkins also mentioned the dispute in Texas, where, according to him, there is a lot of talk about Talarico and Paxton, who appear to be tangled up.

According to the arithmetic presented, 48 seats are in the Democratic column and 45 in the Republican column. If the Democrats took the seven undecided states, they would reach 55 senators. The Republicans, to maintain their majority, need to win all seven, which would give them just 52.

The general panorama was summarized in a report shown on the program: the Senate currently has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, including two independents who vote with the Democratic bench. About a third of the House is up for grabs. To win the majority, Democrats need to keep all the seats they have and win four from other states.

Research and the Chamber

Co-host Rachel highlighted that the ranking sees Minnesota as leaning Democratic, but that candidate Michelle could surprise. She also said she found it surprising to see Texas and Arkansas on the list of contests.

Charlie, another member of the caucus, pointed out that polls have been particularly problematic this cycle, especially in states like Kansas and Nebraska, which do not have a long history of polling. In his assessment, Republican voters and Donald Trump voters tend not to respond to pollsters, while Democrats are more willing, which raises doubts about the reliability of the numbers. Rachel added that the division between rural and urban areas weighs heavily, as rural voters tend to be more distrustful of polling institutes.

In the Chamber, according to the report, there are 219 Republicans (including an independent who votes with the party) and 214 Democrats, with two empty seats that must remain with their parties. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take control. Nine states have redrawn their districts this cycle: Republicans expect to gain seats in seven of them, and Democrats in two.

For the investor, the outcome matters because Congress's control defines the ability to approve or block tax, spending and regulation agendas. The transcript, however, does not include projections about the stock market, interest rates or the dollar, and the analysis itself highlights the uncertainty of the research.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.