Voters in four states vote on measures regarding transgender athletes in women's sports in 6 days

In six days, voters in four American states (Washington, Colorado, Nebraska and Arizona) will decide at the polls on measures regarding the participation of transgender athletes in female school sports. According to the program "Outnumbered", on Fox Business, this is the first time that the issue has reached popular votes in this format, and the result could change sports policies, parental rights and the way candidates deal with the issue of gender identity.

The initiatives seek to protect women's sport reserved for biological women. According to presenter Harris Faulkner, Colorado and Arizona propose banning trans boys from competing on men's teams. The Arizona measure goes further and would also prohibit the use of bathrooms and locker rooms that do not correspond to the sex recorded on the birth certificate. In Washington, one of the proposals would require verification for athletes, while Nebraska is considering similar amendments regarding teams and birth sex.

What the research says

According to a survey cited in the program, 69% of American adults believe that transgender athletes should only compete on teams compatible with their birth sex. Support would be 90% among Republicans and 92% among independents, compared to 41% among Democrats. Another survey mentioned indicates that seven in ten voters (70%) think that men who identify as women should not participate in women's sports.

One of the panelists, Lisa, recalled that, in polls like Gallup, the majority of Democrats also support men staying out of women's sports. Another guest considered that popular initiatives are unpredictable, as they depend on the wording of the questions and who goes to the polls.

Money, politics and 2028

Commentator Kayleigh McEnany stated, based on data from the group promoting the measure in Washington, that 56% of voters in the state support it. According to her, the side in favor of the restriction raised US$7.4 million, compared to around US$2 million from the opposing side. The analysis is that of the commentator, and the numbers were not independently verified on broadcast.

For McEnany, the result would put pressure on possible 2028 Democratic candidates. She cited Governor Gavin Newsom, who, in her assessment, backed away from an initial criticism, and Kamala Harris, who defends “sport for sport” solutions. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, on the other hand, said she remains opposed to any categorical ban. According to the commentator, whoever is on a debate stage will have to give a clear answer to the majority of the public.

Faulkner contended that the issue persists in part because Democrats refuse to pay attention to the facts. Two of the states voting on the measures are considered Democratic strongholds, which, according to the program, could indicate a change of tide. The presenter also cited the case of a women's cross country team in Washington that left a race in protest against the participation of a trans athlete.

Former NBA player and activist Enes Kanter Freedom, a guest on the show, criticized the WNBA. According to him, the league commissioner responded in a letter that he could not play because he was a man, but did not define what a woman was. For him, the issue is one of morality, not right or left. Lisa said that the issue is seen as an issue that divides the electorate, but that general frustration with politics can weigh more on voter turnout than an isolated initiative.

According to the program, more than 20 million voters in the states involved will be able to decide the issue. In the other 27 states, one of the panelists noted, the rules are usually set by legislative assemblies, making direct voting an unprecedented test of the electorate's mood.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.