Without fiscal clarity, the last quarter of 2026 could be the worst of the year for funding
Faria Lima banks and managers see it as difficult for companies to raise funds, with high, volatile interest rates and doubts about the fourth Lula government.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM ESTADÃO · 2 MIN
Banks and managers at Faria Lima project that the fourth quarter of 2026 will be the worst of the year for the capital market, both in fixed income and shares, according to Estadão. The warning comes at a time when the market has not had a clear reference for the prices of securities since the 26th, which takes away a point of support for decisions by issuers and investors.
The cause pointed out by the institutions is the doubt about Lula's fourth government, re-elected. According to the report, it is this uncertainty that is weighing on the market at the moment, and not a specific problem in any sector.
The practical effect is a narrower window for those who need to finance themselves. Companies find it more difficult to raise funds and put new securities on sale, in a scenario that already requires more caution from those who buy.
At the center of the discussion is the interest rate, which remains the main reference for funding. According to Estadão, it should remain high and volatile in the coming months, which keeps the cost of money as a point of attention for those who finance projects and those who invest.
For the market to improve again, the condition indicated is that it starts to price in a prospect of a sustainable fall in the interest rate. To achieve this, according to Estadão, Lula would need to signal his intention to conduct a fiscal adjustment. In other words, the recovery depends on a signal from the government about public accounts.
What changes for the investor
For those who invest and operate stock exchanges and interest rates, the reading is that the interest rate continues to be the central reference for funding, in fixed income and in shares, and that volatility must remain present. The report does not provide price projections. The point at stake is the government's fiscal signaling, because, while it does not appear, the condition indicated for an improvement has not yet been established. It is worth monitoring upcoming signs about public accounts before drawing conclusions about the quarter.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
