Flávio Bolsonaro's trip to the USA weakens opposition and could benefit Lula, analysts say
After refusing the STF's order to hand over passports, Flávio went to the United States, where Trump said he could stay as long as he wanted.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 2 MIN
Flávio Bolsonaro's trip to the United States, made after he refused an order from the Federal Supreme Court to hand over his passports, came to be seen by analysts as a factor in weakening the conservative opposition in Congress. According to Money Times, the predominant reading is that the movement could favor Lula, who won the election in the second round.
The statement that had the most impact came from Donald Trump. Speaking to journalists at the Halloween party in Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida, on Saturday (10/31), he said he had no plans to meet Flávio, according to Times Brasil. On the same occasion, he stated that Flávio can stay in the USA for as long as he wants, according to Revista Oeste.
Trump also said that Flávio was treated unfairly and called the Brazilian election a “shame,” according to Times Brasil. Gazeta do Povo reported that the American once again mentioned the politician's trip to the USA, which keeps the topic at the center of the news.
Flávio arrived in the United States the week these statements were made, according to Revista Oeste. The movement occurred at a time when Brazilian justice is demanding that he hand over his passports, which transforms a judicial issue into a diplomatic issue.
On the government side, Lula accused the United States of interfering to help the Bolsonaro family, according to Money Times. The speech expands the debate, which until now focused on Flávio's legal situation in Brazil, and puts the relationship between the two countries on the political agenda.
What is at stake is the weight of the conservative opposition in Congress. For analysts interviewed by Money Times, the trip weakens this group precisely when it needs cohesion to block Executive projects and demand fiscal discipline.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, interest rates and exchange rates, the central point is political risk. A weaker opposition in Congress tends to offer less resistance to Executive proposals, which may raise doubts about the fiscal responsibility and tax reduction agenda. This effect, however, depends on how the dispute unfolds in the coming weeks, and is not a price prediction. It is worth following the votes in Congress, the statements made by the economic team and the markets' reaction to the clash between Trump and Lula.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
