Ban on betting appears as a boost to retail sales, points out BTG Pactual

Just over a month after the ban on online betting (bets) came into force on 25/09, the effect of the measure is beginning to appear in retail indicators. According to Money Times, a report from BTG Pactual published on Thursday (29) associates the ban with an increase in supermarket and retail sales in general.

The document gains weight because it coincides with data from ABRAS, the Brazilian Supermarket Association, released on the same day. According to the entity, food retail sales rose 6.5% year-on-year in the period from 5 to 11/10 and 6.3% from 12 to 18/10.

In the payments system, the movement went in another direction. According to ABRAS, the volume of transactions via Pix fell by around 10% shortly after the betting ban. Afterwards, volume stabilized around 7% below previous levels.

The case calls for caution in reading. The BTG report talks about association, not a cause and effect relationship, and the data cited covers only two weeks of sales. Still, the combination of greater retail consumption and lower volume on Pix shows how a regulatory change can redistribute household spending between channels and sectors.

For those who follow the real economy and the market, the central question is whether this shift is sustainable in the coming weeks and months, and not just in the first data.

What changes for the investor

If the movement persists, the effect tends to appear first in the results of supermarkets and consumer goods companies, which depend directly on the volume sold. The fall and stabilization of Pix at a lower level deserves attention from those who follow the payment method sector, because the volume of transactions is one of the indicators that these companies monitor. None of this allows you to predict prices: they are signals to be monitored in the next reports, without a recommendation to buy or sell.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.