Uncertainty measured by FGV declines in October, but projections diverge further and doubts persist
IIE-Br indicator drops 1.8 points and reaches 109.0 points, with fewer terms in the press and more dispersion between market projections
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 2 MIN
A incerteza econômica medida pela FGV recuou em outubro, segundo o Money Times. O Indicador de Incerteza da Economia (IIE-Br) caiu 1,8 ponto ante setembro e fechou o mês em 109,0 pontos. É um alívio para quem acompanha o cenário, mas o dado sozinho não permite declarar o assunto resolvido.
Na média móvel trimestral, que suaviza oscilações de curto prazo, o índice recuou apenas 0,1 ponto e ficou em 110,5 pontos. Isso significa que a queda de outubro aparece com mais força no dado mensal do que na tendência de três meses, o que pede cautela na leitura.
The two components of the indicator moved in opposite directions. According to the Money Times, the incidence of terms in the press declined in October, while the dispersion of market projections rose. In other words, the news about uncertainty lost space, but projections began to move further away from each other.
Stefano Pacini, economist at FGV Ibre, summarizes the picture: political uncertainty has decreased, but doubts about the trajectory of the economy remain. According to Money Times, he assesses that the direction of the indicator in the coming months should depend on signals about the economic policy of the next term.
This is the central point of the reading. For those who defend fiscal responsibility and predictable rules, clarity about the commitment to public accounts is what most reduces long-term uncertainty. Sem essa sinalização, a melhora registrada em outubro tende a ficar restrita ao campo político.
What changes for the investor
If the decline in uncertainty continues, it could alleviate the risk premium required for assets such as shares, which tends to be read positively in stock markets, interest rates and foreign exchange. But the increase in the dispersion of projections shows that there is still no consensus on the path of the economy, and announcements about economic policy can cause strong fluctuations in these markets. The indicator describes the mood of uncertainty, not the price of assets, and the moment calls for monitoring economic policy signals before drawing conclusions about the direction of the market.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
