Unemployment falls to 5.2%, lowest rate since 2012, but squeezes space for Selic cuts
Unemployment stood at 5.2% in the quarter up to September, and consumption is gaining momentum, but the Central Bank has less room to accelerate the drop in interest rates.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM INFOMONEY · 3 MIN
The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in the quarter up to September, according to IBGE's Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua), released on Friday (30). According to InfoMoney, it is the lowest rate for the period since the beginning of the series, in 2012. The data is positive for employment, but it also complicates the lives of those expecting lower interest rates in the short term.
Revista Oeste reports that, in the previous quarter, the rate was 5.3%. InfoMoney points out that, in the second quarter, unemployment was 5.4%, and that in the same period in 2025 it reached 5.6%. Also according to Revista Oeste, the country had around 5.6 million unemployed people in the period.
Rising employment and wages, according to InfoMoney, support consumption. When more people work and total income grows, demand for goods and services tends to remain strong, which helps economic activity.
The problem is on the other side of the equation. Banks and brokers interviewed by InfoMoney assess that a tight labor market increases the risk of services inflation, precisely the component that the Central Bank monitors closely.
In the same reading, the framework limits the space for the BC to accelerate Selic cuts in the next meetings. In other words, the good employment situation and the inflationary risk pull in the same direction: less rush to loosen monetary policy.
The data, therefore, places the trajectory of interest rates at the center of the economic debate. A strong job market is favorable news for income, but requires the monetary authority to be cautious before reducing the base rate.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the message is to pay attention to the Selic and upcoming inflation and employment data. If the pace of cuts becomes slower than expected, future interest rates and the exchange rate tend to react to each new reading of the labor market and service prices. At the same time, firm consumption supports domestic demand, which can benefit companies linked to retail and credit. This scenario does not indicate direction for asset prices, and it is up to each investor to assess their own risk profile.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
