Lula must face Congress with a center-right majority from 2027, study shows
According to a study by ARX Investimentos, the right and center-right make up 56.9% of deputies and 63% of senators.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM EXAME · 2 MIN
President Lula (PT) was re-elected for a fourth term, but will govern with a Congress in which the right and center-right are the majority. According to Exame, which cites a study by ARX Investimentos, negotiating Executive agendas should become more difficult from 2027 onwards.
According to the survey, the right and center-right account for 56.9% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 63% in the Senate. In practice, Planalto will need to build support with parliamentarians from another ideological camp to approve its projects.
Chief economist Gabriel Barros, cited by Exame, assesses that divergences in the economic agenda could complicate the relationship between the government and the Legislature. The central point, therefore, is not just the arithmetic of votes, but the content of the proposals that will reach the plenary.
What is at stake is the government's ability to advance its economic agenda in an environment in which the Legislature tends to weigh more in favor of less spending and fewer taxes. This balance of forces defines which measures have a chance of becoming law and which fall by the wayside.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, predictability is what matters most. In theory, a center-right Congress can act as a brake on proposals to increase spending and the tax burden, which affects expectations about public accounts. This text, however, does not provide price projections, and the real effect will depend on how divergences in the economic agenda are resolved in practice. It is worth following the vote on fiscal agendas and the relationship between Planalto and the Legislature in the first months of the mandate.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
